Energy ceasefire announced by Donald Trump: possible impact on Russian refineries and diesel, according to BFM Business

An announcement with still-unclear contours

On Sunday, Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that an "energy ceasefire" was in effect in the war between Russia and Ukraine, asserting that both sides had agreed to it. According to BFM Business, the U.S. president says he obtained a commitment from Moscow and Kyiv to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure.

BFM Business notes that the terms still need to be defined. President Zelensky said he had not been informed, and neither belligerent has yet provided a detailed confirmation.

What each side could gain

According to BFM Business, Ukraine would see Russian bombardments of its power plants and heating facilities stop, a threat greatly feared as winter approaches. Russia, whose refineries have been targeted for months by Ukrainian drones, could restart their operations without fear of new strikes.

The outlet recalls that the announcement comes two days after a first agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. That agreement is meant to bring Russian diesel back to the global market in order to weigh on fuel prices, which have surged since the start of the war in Iran.

Heavily damaged Russian refineries

BFM Business reports that since 2025, Kyiv has markedly increased its long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries. These strikes particularly target distillation units, which are needed to convert crude oil into gasoline, diesel or kerosene.

According to a Washington Post investigation published Sunday, at least two-thirds of Russia's 36 main refineries have been hit. In August 2026, idled sites at times represented roughly half of the country's refining capacity.

According to the Financial Times, cited by BFM Business, Russian diesel shipments have fallen by 40% since January. Russia, presented as one of the world's two leading exporters, has had to buy petroleum products from India. Moscow has also rationed fuel in some regions and extended its diesel export ban until the end of October, in order to serve its domestic market first.

A return of exports that is anything but immediate

According to BFM Business, halting the strikes would allow refineries to run more steadily. Until now, a unit returned to service could be damaged again a few days or weeks later. A truce would give time to make lasting repairs, rebuild inventories and, eventually, produce more diesel and gasoline.

The outlet adds a caveat: exports would not resume right away, as Moscow gives priority to domestic demand, notably agriculture, transport and the military. A significant increase in foreign sales would depend on repairing the facilities and lifting export restrictions.

Regarding the agreement announced Friday by Donald Trump with Vladimir Putin, BFM Business cites gradual volumes: more than 800,000 tonnes by November, then one million tonnes, then three million additional tonnes. These deliveries remain conditional on the state of the refineries. BFM Business considers them highly uncertain, because lifting the sales ban is not enough: operational plants, available inventories and logistical capacity are also needed.

Analysis and market context

Analysis: based on BFM Business's reporting, the ceasefire could remove the first obstacle, that of the production tool, but not the other two. Its effect on prices would therefore depend on confirmation of the agreement and its implementation.

According to BFM Business, since the war in Iran began at the end of February, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and damage to several energy infrastructures in the Middle East have cut global supply. Up to 6 to 8 million barrels per day have been affected since late spring, equivalent to as much as 10% of global refining capacity.

The outlet adds that diesel prices approached $1,500 a tonne in London in early October, roughly double their pre-crisis level.