IMF: Kristalina Georgieva sees AI supporting global growth of around 3% in 2026, especially in Asia

Global growth expected at around 3%

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said on Monday, October 12, 2026 that the surge in investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is helping to support global activity. According to BFM Business, she is forecasting growth of about 3% this year, despite the energy crisis.

Also according to BFM Business, the IMF had announced in July that it was targeting global growth of 3% for 2026. The institution is due to present its updated outlook on Tuesday.

Asia on the front line

Kristalina Georgieva was speaking on the first day of a week-long series of IMF and World Bank meetings held in Bangkok. She explained that Asia is the first region to benefit, with many countries, including Thailand, providing AI infrastructure.

She described a "demand shock" and an investment shock already under way. By her estimates, growth in advanced Asian economies could gain 0.5 to 1 percentage point, and growth in emerging Asian economies 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point.

She added that the United States, China and India are the main players in the AI supply chain, but that many of the companies building the required infrastructure are located in Asia. She cited Thailand, host of this year's meetings.

Employment and tax revenue

Kristalina Georgieva compared AI to a "tsunami moving slowly." She believes its effects will be profound on employment, growth, education and the ways taxes are collected, due to a sharing of value added expected to be more favorable to capital.

BFM Business explains that, since AI can automate many tasks, some experts anticipate a shift in labor income, meaning wages, toward owners of technology and machinery.

Kristalina Georgieva said that, according to the IMF, AI could eventually transform, devalue or eliminate 40% of jobs. She also cited an early study showing that 10% of jobs in the United States already require AI skills.

Remarks from Ajay Banga and Tharman Shanmugaratnam

Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank, said the institution intends to rely on "small AI," which does not use large language models. He sees it as a productivity lever for farmers, health systems, teachers and other actors in emerging countries. According to BFM Business, he has placed employment at the center of his mandate.

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, President of Singapore, urged governments to pay attention to young graduates looking for their first job. He warned of a risk of a "new divergence" between developing and advanced economies, in both growth and employment. In his view, AI will widen this gap if states remain too passive.

Uneven participation

Around 18,000 people are expected to attend the Bangkok meetings, including finance officials from the IMF's 191 member countries. However, sources close to the matter, cited by BFM Business, indicate that several leading ministers will not make the trip because their domestic priorities keep them at home. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, and Arcadi España, for Spanish Finance, are mentioned.

Analysis

Kristalina Georgieva's remarks present AI both as a short-term support for growth, especially in Asia, and as a source of structural change for employment and public finances. The figures cited are her own estimates. The outlook expected on Tuesday will show how the IMF takes them into account. Investing.com also published an article the same day on AI and the aging workforce in Asia, of which only the headline is known.