United States: government deficit increased by 12% in 2026 to $1,992 billion

A marked deterioration in the federal public accounts

The U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit deteriorated sharply after the fiscal year ended in September 2026. According to information provided by the Treasury Department and reported by BFM Business, the government deficit in the first global economy increased by 12% compared to the previous year. It reached $1,992 billion between October 2025 and September 2026, an increase of nearly $220 billion over 2025. Investing.com reported $1,990 billion for the same fiscal year 2026.

According to BFM Business, this financial imbalance would amount to about 6.2 per cent of US gross domestic product by 2026, compared to a ratio of 5.9 per cent in 2025. However, this estimate remains provisional as official data on gross domestic product over the entire period concerned have not yet been made public. The overall dynamics of the federal budget show a marked gap: U.S. government spending grew by $386 billion in total, increasing at a rate twice as much as revenue, which increased by only $169 billion.

The budgetary impact of the decision on customs surcharges

The increase in the government deficit is partly due to an unforeseen budgetary burden linked to external trade disputes. According to detailed BFM Business, the federal government had to pay an additional $145 billion in customs surcharge refunds in the past fiscal year.

This is the result of an arbitration by the Supreme Court earlier this year, which invalidated most of the customs duties recently introduced by Donald Trump. However, these customs taxes had generated $202 billion in revenues in the previous year. In an attempt to rebalance the financial situation, the U.S. President has implemented new customs barriers targeting trade with the country's main trading partners. However, these new levies have made it possible to fill only part of the retroactive payments made by the US government.

The surge in debt service and pressure on rates

The other major driver of the widening deficit lies in the rising cost of financing the public authorities. According to BFM Business, interest paid on U.S. public debt has increased by $144 billion over the past twelve months, increasing by 12% to $1,360 billion. In parallel, the federal government's overall debt reached a new level during the year, exceeding the $40,000 billion threshold to $41,172 billion as of September 30, 2026.

This increase in government borrowing is part of a particularly tense market environment. According to BFM Business, the cost of Treasury bills has been propelled upwards by a combination of factors: the continued increase in the stock of debt, geopolitical uncertainties fuelled by the Middle East conflict, the rate increases decided by the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation, as well as competition in the capital markets through debt raising to finance data centres dedicated to artificial intelligence. As a direct consequence of these tensions, the yield of the 10-year Treasury bill, considered the benchmark, rose from less than 4% in October 2025 to more than 5.20% at the end of September 2026.

Increase in social, defence and fiscal revenue expenditure

Apart from debt interests and customs adjustments, the traditional tasks of the State have also weighed heavily on the public accounts. According to BFM Business, spending on defence grew by $48 billion, an increase of 6%, mainly attributed to the impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

On the health and social side, Medicaid and Medicare, which finance medical assistance and coverage for pensioners and vulnerable households, each registered an 8 per cent increase. This has led to an overall increase of $120 billion in expenditure for the Department of Health, the responsible authority for these programmes.

In the face of this general increase in expenses, federal revenues benefited from the general strength of national economic activity. According to BFM Business, the income from tax has increased significantly, particularly thanks to contributions from individuals who have contributed more than $270 billion in supplements to public funds. However, this additional tax has only absorbed a fraction of the surge in government spending.